Temperature-dependent development of Ascotis selenaria (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) and its stage emergence models with field validation

Temperature-dependent development of Ascotis selerzaria (Denis et Schiffermdller) was studied in the laboratory. Time to egg eclosion decreased with increasing temperature and ranged from 17.4 d at 16 degrees C to 5.0 d at 30 and 32 degrees C. Total development times of larvae decreased from 54.7 d at 16 degrees C to 17.3 d at 32 degrees C. The development time of pupae ranged from 29.7 days at 16 degrees C to 10.2 days at 30 and 32 degrees C. Eggs, larvae and pupae did not develop successfully to the next stage at 12 and 35 C. The estimated lower temperature thresholds were 10.4, 9.3, and 9.8 degrees C for eggs, larvae, and pupae, respectively. Thermal constants of egg, larvae, and pupae were 88.5, 370.4, and 188.7 DD, respectively. Stage emergence models for eggs, larvae, and pupae of A. selenaria were constructed by using the development rate model (Lactin 2 function) and development distribution model (three-parameter Weibull function), which simulate the proportion of individuals shifted from one stage to the next. Pearson's correlation coefficients between actual observations in the field and model outputs were statistically significant with 0.99, 0.68 to 0.87 and 0.96 to 0.98 for egg, larval and pupal stage emergence model, respectively. The egg stage emergence model could be used to facilitate spraying time as it successfully predicted the first instar larval population. Predictability of the pupal stage emergence model was greatly improved when the physiological age of overwintering pupae was assumed to be in various state. The stage emergence models developed here should be useful to construct an A. selenaria population model. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.