Utilizing electronic health record data to understand comorbidity burden among people living with HIV: a machine learning approach

Objectives: An understanding of the predictors of comorbidity among people living with HIV (PLWH) is critical for effective HIV care management. In this study, we identified predictors of comorbidity burden among PLWH based on machine learning models with electronic health record (EHR) data. Methods: The study population are individuals with a HIV diagnosis between January 2005 and December 2016 in South Carolina (SC). The change of comorbidity burden, represented by the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) score, was measured by the score difference between pre- and post-HIV diagnosis, and dichotomized into a binary outcome variable. Thirty-five risk predictors from multiple domains were used to predict the increase in comorbidity burden based on the logistic least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression analysis using 80% data for model development and 20% data for validation. Results: Of 8253 PLWH, the mean value of the CCI score difference was 0.8 +/- 1.9 (range from 0 to 21) with 2328 (28.2%) patients showing an increase in CCI score after HIV diagnosis. Top predictors for an increase in CCI score using the LASSO model included older age at HIV diagnosis, positive family history of chronic conditions, tobacco use, longer duration with retention in care, having PEBA insurance, having low recent CD4(+) cell count and duration of viral suppression. Conclusion: The application of machine learning methods to EHR data could identify important predictors of increased comorbidity burden among PLWH with high accuracy. Results may enhance the understanding of comorbidities and provide the evidence based data for integrated HIV and comorbidity care management of PLWH.