Hydrologic balance and inundation dynamics of Southeast Asia's largest inland lake altered by hydropower dams in the Mekong River basin

Inland lakes have been increasingly impacted by climate change and human activities, leading to unprecedented environmental consequences. Among many rapidly changing lakes is the Tonle Sap Lake (TSL) in Cambodia-Southeast Asia's largest inland lake-which is under growing threats from altered flows and inundation dynamics due to compounding effects of climate change and dam construction in the Mekong River basin (MRB). While previous studies have examined the potential causes of recent changes in open water areas, a mechanistic quantification of the lake's shifting hydrologic balance and inundation dynamics due to natural climate variability and dam operations is lacking. Here, using a hydrological-hydrodynamic modeling system that includes the major dams in the MRB, we show that while climate variability has been a key driver of inter-decadal variabilities in the lake's water balance, the operation of Mekong dams has exerted a growing influence-especially after 2010-on the Mekong flood pulse, Tonle Sap River's flow reversal, and the TSL's inundation dynamics. The dam-induced dampening of the Mekong's peak discharge increased from 1-2% during 1979-2009 to -7% in the 2010s, causing comparable alterations in the peak of inflow from the Mekong into TSL. More crucially, during the 2010s, the dams caused a reduction in annual inflow volume into TSL by 10-25% and shortened the annual inundation duration by up to 15 days in the lake's periphery. Further, seasonally inundated areas decreased (increased) most substantially by -245 km2 or -3% (-270 km2 or -6%) in August (April) during the 2010s. These results demonstrate that Mekong dams have already caused substantial alterations in the hydrologic balance and inundation dynamics of the TSL. Our findings offer critical insights relevant for improved transboundary water management and decision making in light of growing concerns about the adverse impacts of large dams in the MRB.