THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM'S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

The two-year Brexit process, formally initiated on March 2017, is coming to an end, intensifying public discussions and concerns about the future of the EU, including the community budget and policies. This paper articulates the likely implications of the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU on the Common Agricultural Policy using a political economy approach. It focuses on the budgetary and agricultural trade consequences of the Brexit for the EU remaining member states. The European Commission's proposed reduction by 5% of the CAP budget for 2021-2027 is one of the first Brexit consequences that potentially can result in a decline in EU farm incomes. The leaving the single market and customs union by the UK, traditionally taking a liberal market position, will probably affect not only the CAP, but also agricultural policies amongst WTO and G20 member countries. With lack of some kind of free trade agreement between the UK and the EU, agri-food net exports from the EU27 to the UK will decrease.