Mapping dynamic peri-urban land use transitions across Canada using Landsat time series: Spatial and temporal trends and associations with socio-demographic factors

Transformations of agriculture and natural lands to urban use are dominant and well known effects of urbanization, but consistent and reliable methods to map regional-scale land transitions are limited. Herein, we develop a land use classification approach to assess spatiotemporal patterns of urban expansion and associated land use changes. We utilized a 33-year annual time series (1984-2016) of fractional land characteristics and cover data from Landsat satellite imagery to summarize multidecadal land use transitions on the pixel and census dissemination area level for 18 major Canadian cities. Across Canada, 41% of peri-urban areas analyzed experienced a transition, converting about 2,700 sq-km of natural and/or agriculture to an urban use. West coast peri-urban areas observed the greatest area conversion of natural to urban use (39%). In contrast, peri-urban areas of the Prairies (i.e. west-center stratum) experienced the greatest area transition from an agriculture to urban use (41%), while west- and east-center observed marked rates of natural to urban transitions (3.9 and 3.5% per annum per sq-km, respectively). Current high population densities were generally associated with historic losses of agriculture or natural use, while regional differences in correlations between land use trends and current levels of income, new residential construction, and single-detached housing highlight the potential influence of urban policies and historic socio-economic trajectories. The developed dynamic land use classification provides a reliable, transparent, and nationally consistent method to tabulate land use intensity across various spatiotemporal scales and may enhance interpretation of interdisciplinary studies involving social and community outcomes.