Future climate change impact on wildfire danger over the Mediterranean: the case of Greece

被引:25
作者
Rovithakis, Anastasios [1 ,2 ]
Grillakis, Manolis G. [1 ,2 ]
Seiradakis, Konstantinos D. [1 ,2 ]
Giannakopoulos, Christos [4 ]
Karali, Anna [4 ]
Field, Robert [5 ,6 ]
Lazaridis, Mihalis [1 ]
Voulgarakis, Apostolos [1 ,2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Tech Univ Crete, Sch Chem & Environm Engn, Khania, Greece
[2] Imperial Coll London, Leverhulme Ctr Wildfires Environm & Soc, London, England
[3] Imperial Coll London, Dept Phys, London, England
[4] Natl Observ Athens, Inst Environm Res & Sustainable Dev, Athens, Greece
[5] Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA
[6] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
关键词
fire danger; fire weather index; EURO-CORDEX; wildfires; FIRE WEATHER INDEX; PROJECTIONS; RISK; GENERATION; RESOLUTION; SCENARIO; INCREASE; SYSTEM; CANADA; SEASON;
D O I
10.1088/1748-9326/ac5f94
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Recent studies have shown that temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean are expected to change, contributing to longer and more intense summer droughts that even extend out of season. In connection to this, the frequency of forest fire occurrence and intensity will likely increase. In the present study, the changes in future fire danger conditions are assessed for the different regions of Greece using the Canadian fire weather index (FWI). Gridded future climate output as estimated from three regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment are utilized. We use three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) consisting of an optimistic emissions scenario where emissions peak and decline beyond 2020 (RCP2.6), a middle-of-the-road scenario (RCP4.5) and a pessimistic scenario, in terms of mitigation where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). Based on established critical fire FWI threshold values for Greece, the future change in days with critical fire danger were calculated for different areas of Greece domains. The results show that fire danger is expected to progressively increase in the future especially in the high-end climate change scenario with southern and eastern regions of Greece expected to have up to 40 additional days of high fire danger relative to the late 20th century, on average. Crete, the Aegean Islands, the Attica region, as well as parts of Peloponnese are predicted to experience a stronger increase in fire danger.
引用
收藏
页数:11
相关论文
共 61 条
[1]   Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices [J].
Abatzoglou, John T. ;
Williams, A. Park ;
Barbero, Renaud .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019, 46 (01) :326-336
[2]   Global patterns of interannual climate-fire relationships [J].
Abatzoglou, John T. ;
Williams, A. Park ;
Boschetti, Luigi ;
Zubkova, Maria ;
Kolden, Crystal A. .
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2018, 24 (11) :5164-5175
[3]   Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries [J].
Amatulli, Giuseppe ;
Camia, Andrea ;
San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus .
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, 2013, 450 :209-222
[4]  
Andela N., 2018, Earth System Science Data Discussions, P1, DOI DOI 10.5194/ESSD-2018-89
[5]   Historical evaluations and simulations of precipitation over East Africa from Rossby centre regional climate model [J].
Ayugi, Brian ;
Tan, Guirong ;
Gnitou, Gnim Tchalim ;
Ojara, Moses ;
Ongoma, Victor .
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2020, 232
[6]   Regional Climate Models Validation for Agroclimatology in Romania [J].
Bartok, Blanka ;
Telcian, Adrian-Sorin ;
Sacarea, Christian ;
Horvath, Csaba ;
Croitoru, Adina-Eliza ;
Stoian, Vlad .
ATMOSPHERE, 2021, 12 (08)
[7]   Forest fire danger projections in the Mediterranean using ENSEMBLES regional climate change scenarios [J].
Bedia, J. ;
Herrera, S. ;
Camia, A. ;
Moreno, J. M. ;
Gutierrez, J. M. .
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2014, 122 (1-2) :185-199
[8]  
Bradshaw L., 1984, General Technical Report INT-169, DOI [DOI 10.2737/INT-GTR-169, 10.2737/INT-GTR-169]
[9]   Fire weather risk assessment under climate change using a dynamical downscaling approach [J].
Carvalho, A. C. ;
Carvalho, A. ;
Martins, H. ;
Marques, C. ;
Rocha, A. ;
Borrego, C. ;
Viegas, D. X. ;
Miranda, A. I. .
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE, 2011, 26 (09) :1123-1133
[10]   Comparative study of GCMs, RCMs, downscaling and hydrological models: a review toward future climate change impact estimation [J].
Chokkavarapu, Nagaveni ;
Mandla, Venkata Ravibabu .
SN APPLIED SCIENCES, 2019, 1 (12)