Estimating the total incidence of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years from 1990 to 2050: a global simulation-based analysis

被引：22

作者：

Ward, Zachary J. ^{[1
,2
]}

Yeh, Jennifer M. ^{[2
,5
,6
]}

Reddy, Che L. ^{[2
,3
]}

Gomber, Apoorva ^{[2
,3
]}

Ross, Carlo ^{[2
,3
,10
]}

Rittiphairoj, Thanitsara ^{[2
,3
,11
]}

Manne-Goehler, Jennifer ^{[2
,7
,8
]}

Abdalla, Asmahan T. ^{[13
]}

Abdullah, Mohamed Ahmed ^{[13
,14
]}

Ahmed, Abdurezak ^{[15
]}

Ankotche, Amos ^{[16
]}

Azad, Kishwar ^{[17
,18
]}

Bahendeka, Silver ^{[19
]}

Balde, Naby ^{[20
]}

Jain, Sunil M. ^{[21
]}

Kalobu, Jean Clovis ^{[22
]}

Karekezi, Catherine ^{[23
]}

Kol, Hero ^{[24
]}

Prasannakumar, K. M. ^{[25
]}

Leik, Sai Kham ^{[12
]}

Mbanya, Jean Claude ^{[26
]}

Mbaye, Maimouna Ndour ^{[27
]}

Niang, Babacar ^{[28
]}

Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao ^{[29
]}

Raghupathy, Palany ^{[30
]}

Ramaiya, Kaushik ^{[31
]}

Sethi, Bipin ^{[32
]}

Zabeen, Bedowra ^{[33
,34
]}

Atun, Rifat ^{[2
,3
,4
,9
]}

机构：

[1] Harvard Univ, Ctr Hlth Decis Sci, Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA USA

[2] Harvard Univ, Hlth Syst Innovat Lab, Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA USA

[3] Harvard Univ, Dept Global Hlth & Populat, Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA USA

[4] Harvard Univ, Dept Hlth Policy & Management, Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA USA

[5] Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Div Gen Pediat, Boston Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[6] Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Dept Pediat, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[7] Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Div Infect Dis, Brigham & Womens Hosp, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[8] Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Med Practice Evaluat Ctr, Massachusetts Gen Hosp, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[9] Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Dept Global Hlth & Social Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[10] Manchester Univ NHS Fdn Trust, Acad Fdn Programme, Manchester, Lancs, England

[11] Mahidol Univ, Ramathibodi Hosp, Fac Med, Div Hlth Syst Management,Dept Community Med, Bangkok, Thailand

[12] Mahidol Univ, Dept Social Econ & Adm Pharm, Fac Pharm, Bangkok, Thailand

[13] Int Univ Africa, Coll Med, Khartoum, Sudan

[14] Sudanese Childhood Diabet Assoc, Khartoum, Sudan

[15] Addis Ababa Univ, Coll Hlth Sci, Sch Med, Dept Internal Med, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

[16] Univ Cote Ivoire, Med Sci Abidjan, Unit Training & Res, Dept Internal Med Endocrinol & Geriatr, Abidjan, Cote Ivoire

[17] BIRDEM, Dhaka, Bangladesh

[18] Ibrahim Med Coll, Dhaka, Bangladesh

[19] MKPGMS Uganda Martyrs Univ, Dept Internal Med, Kampala, Uganda

[20] Univ Hosp, Dept Endocrinol, Conakry, Guinea

[21] TOTALL Diabet Hormone Inst, Indore, Madhya Pradesh, India

[22] Memisa, Kinshasa, DEM REP CONGO

[23] Kenya Diabet Management & Informat Ctr, Nairobi, Kenya

[24] Minist Hlth, Dept Prevent Med, Phnom Penh, Cambodia

[25] Ctr Diabet & Endocrine Care, Bengaluru, India

[26] Univ Yaounde, Fac Med & Biomed Sci, Dept Internal Med & Specialties, Yaounde, Cameroon

[27] Ctr Diabet Marc Sankale, Dakar, Senegal

[28] Ctr Hosp Natl Enfants Albert Royer, Dakar, Senegal

[29] DiabetOmics, Hyderabad, India

[30] Indira Gandhi Inst Child Hlth, Paediat & Adolescent Endocrinol, Bangalore, Karnataka, India

[31] Shree Hindu Mandal Hosp, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

[32] Care Hosp, Hyderabad, India

[33] Bangladesh Inst Res & Rehabil Diabet Endocrine &, Dept Paediat, Dhaka, Bangladesh

[34] Diabet Assoc Bangladesh, Changing Diabet Children Programme, Dhaka, Bangladesh

来源：

LANCET DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY | 2022年 / 10卷 / 12期

关键词：

KETOACIDOSIS; AUTOANTIBODIES; MELLITUS; RISK;

D O I：

10.1016/S2213-8587(22)00276-5

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

Background Previous studies of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence have found large variations in reported incidence around the world. However, it is unclear whether these reported incidence levels are impacted by differences in country health systems and possible underdiagnosis and if so, to what degree. The aim of this study was to estimate both the total and diagnosed incidence of type 1 diabetes globally and to project childhood type 1 diabetes incidence indicators from 1990 to 2050 for each country. Methods We developed the type 1 diabetes global microsimulation model to simulate the natural history and diagnosis of type 1 diabetes for children and adolescents (aged 0-19 years) in 200 countries and territories, accounting for variability in underlying incidence and health system performance. The model follows an open population of children and adolescents in monthly intervals and simulates type 1 diabetes incidence and progression, as well as health system factors which influence diagnosis. We calibrated the model to published data on type 1 diabetes incidence, autoantibody profiles, and proportion of cases diagnosed with diabetic ketoacidosis from 1990 to 2020 and assessed the predictive accuracy using a randomly sampled test set of data withheld from calibration. Findings We estimate that in 2021 there were 355 900 (95% UI 334 200-377 300) total new cases of type 1 diabetes globally among children and adolescents, of which 56% (200 400 cases, 95% UI 180 600-219 500) were diagnosed. Estimated underdiagnosis varies substantially by region, with over 95% of new cases diagnosed in Australia and New Zealand, western and northern Europe, and North America, but less than 35% of new cases diagnosed in west Africa, south and southeastern Asia, and Melanesia. The total number of incident childhood cases of type 1 diabetes is projected to increase to 476 700 (95% UI 449 500-504 300) in 2050. Interpretation Our research indicates that the total global incidence of childhood and adolescent type 1 diabetes is larger than previously estimated, with nearly one-in-two children currently undiagnosed. Policymakers should plan for adequate diagnostic and medical capacity to improve timely type 1 diabetes detection and treatment, particularly as incidence is projected to increase worldwide, with highest numbers of new cases in Africa. Copyright (c) 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：848 / 858

页数：11

共 31 条

[1]

Amer Diabet Assoc, 2010, DIABETES CARE, V33, pS11, DOI [10.2337/dc10-S062, 10.2337/dc11-S011, 10.2337/dc10-S011, 10.2337/dc14-S081, 10.2337/dc13-S067, 10.2337/dc12-s064, 10.2337/dc11-S062, 10.2337/dc13-S011, 10.2337/dc12-s011]

[2] DAG-informed regression modelling, agent-based modelling and microsimulation modelling: a critical comparison of methods for causal inference [J].

Arnold, Kellyn F. ;

Harrison, Wendy J. ;

Heppenstall, Alison J. ;

Gilthorpe, Mark S. .

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, 2019, 48 (01) :243-253

[3] A survey of youth with new onset type 1 diabetes: Opportunities to reduce diabetic ketoacidosis [J].

Baldelli, Luke ;

Flitter, Ben ;

Pyle, Laura ;

Maahs, David M. ;

Klingensmith, Georgeanna ;

Slover, Robert ;

Alonso, G. Todd .

PEDIATRIC DIABETES, 2017, 18 (07) :547-552

[4] Incidence and trends of childhood Type 1 diabetes worldwide 1990-1999 [J].

Bessaoud, K. ;

Boudraa, G. ;

Molinero de Ropolo, M. ;

de Sereday, M. ;

Marti, M. L. ;

Moser, M. ;

Lapertosa, S. ;

Damiano, M. ;

Verge, C. ;

Howard, N. ;

Schober, E. ;

Jordan, O. ;

Weets, I. ;

Gorus, F. ;

Coeckelberghs, M. ;

Rooman, R. ;

Van Gaal, L. ;

Franco, L. J. ;

Ferreira, S. R. G. ;

Lisboa, H. P. K. ;

Kurtz, L. A. ;

Graebin, R. ;

Kutzke, L. ;

Rodriges, C. ;

Savova, R. ;

Christov, V. ;

Iotova, V. ;

Tzaneva, V. ;

Pacaud, D. ;

Toth, E. ;

Tan, M. H. ;

Carrasco, E. ;

Perez, F. ;

Ze, Y. ;

Bo, Y. ;

Chen, S. ;

Fu, L. ;

Deng, L. ;

Shen, S. ;

Teng, K. ;

Wang, C. ;

Jian, H. ;

Ju, J. ;

Yan, C. ;

Ze, Y. ;

Deng, Y. ;

Li, C. ;

Zhang, Y. ;

Liu, Y. ;

Long, X. .

DIABETIC MEDICINE, 2006, 23 (08) :857-866

[5] Residual β-cell function after 10 years of autoimmune type 1 diabetes: prevalence, possible determinants, and implications for metabolism [J].

Cheng, Jin ;

Yin, Min ;

Tang, Xiaohan ;

Yan, Xiang ;

Xie, Yuting ;

He, Binbin ;

Li, Xia ;

Zhou, Zhiguang .

ANNALS OF TRANSLATIONAL MEDICINE, 2021, 9 (08)

[6] Type 1 Diabetes in Children and Adolescents: A Position Statement by the American Diabetes Association [J].

Chiang, Jane L. ;

Maahs, David M. ;

Garvey, Katharine C. ;

Hood, Korey K. ;

Laffel, Lori M. ;

Weinzimer, Stuart A. ;

Wolfsdorf, Joseph I. ;

Schatz, Desmond .

DIABETES CARE, 2018, 41 (09) :2026-2044

[7] Diabetic ketoacidosis [J].

Dhatariya, Ketan K. ;

Glaser, Nicole S. ;

Codner, Ethel ;

Umpierrez, Guillermo E. .

NATURE REVIEWS DISEASE PRIMERS, 2020, 6 (01)

[8] CLINICAL-PATTERN OF CHILDHOOD TYPE-1 (INSULIN-DEPENDENT) DIABETES-MELLITUS IN THE SUDAN [J].

ELAMIN, A ;

ALTAHIR, H ;

ISMAIL, B ;

TUVEMO, T .

DIABETOLOGIA, 1992, 35 (07) :645-648

[9]

Gomber A, PLOS GLOB PUBLIC HLT

[10] Global incidence, prevalence, and mortality of type 1 diabetes in 2021 with projection to 2040: a modelling study br [J].

Gregory, Gabriel A. ;

Robinson, Thomas I. G. ;

Linklater, Sarah E. ;

Wang, Fei ;

Colagiuri, Stephen ;

de Beaufort, Carine ;

Donaghue, Kim C. ;

Magliano, Dianna J. ;

Maniam, Jayanthi ;

Orchard, Trevor J. ;

Rai, Priyanka ;

Ogle, Graham D. .

LANCET DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY, 2022, 10 (10) :741-760

← 1 2 3 4 →