The role of sovereign credit ratings in fiscal discipline

被引：7
作者：
Duygun, Meryem [1 ]
Ozturk, Huseyin [2 ]
Shaban, Mohamed [3 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Nottingham, Sch Business, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England
[2] Cent Bank Republ Turkey, Ankara, Turkey
[3] Univ Sheffield, Sch Management, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England
来源：
EMERGING MARKETS REVIEW | 2016年 / 27卷
关键词：
DEBT; CYCLES; POLICY; RISK; GOVERNMENT; ELECTIONS; AGENCIES;
D O I：
10.1016/j.ememar.2016.05.002
中图分类号：
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号：
0202 ;
摘要：
This paper investigates several aspects of the relationship between sovereign credit ratings and fiscal discipline. The analysis of over one thousand country-year observations for 93 countries during the 1999-2010 period reveals that a country's debt level is likely to increase with higher ratings, confirming the existence of pro-cyclicality and path dependence of ratings. In addition, the study finds no evidence to support the theory of Political Business Cycle, which implies that political ambitions may lead to fiscal worsening following a rating upgrade. The study findings further demonstrate that institutional quality is an important factor in the ratings-fiscal discipline nexus. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.
引用
收藏
页码：197 / 216
页数：20
相关论文
共 41 条
  • [1] Fiscal policy responsiveness, persistence, and discretion
    Afonso, Antonio
    Agnello, Luca
    Furceri, Davide
    [J]. PUBLIC CHOICE, 2010, 145 (3-4) : 503 - 530
  • [2] Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis
    Aizenman, Joshua
    Binici, Mahir
    Hutchison, Michael
    [J]. OXFORD REVIEW OF ECONOMIC POLICY, 2013, 29 (03) : 582 - 609
  • [3] Opportunistic political cycles: Test in a young democracy setting
    Akhmedov, A
    Zhuravskaya, E
    [J]. QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, 2004, 119 (04) : 1301 - 1338
  • [4] Good Government Means Different Things in Different Countries
    Andrews, Matt
    [J]. GOVERNANCE-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF POLICY ADMINISTRATION AND INSTITUTIONS, 2010, 23 (01): : 7 - 35
  • [5] [Anonymous], 1996, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review
  • [6] [Anonymous], 2010, EUR J DEV RES, DOI [DOI 10.1057/ejdr.2009.32, DOI 10.1057/EJDR.2009.32]
  • [7] ANOTHER LOOK AT THE INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE ESTIMATION OF ERROR-COMPONENTS MODELS
    ARELLANO, M
    BOVER, O
    [J]. JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS, 1995, 68 (01) : 29 - 51
  • [8] BALASSONE F., 2006, EMPIRICA N, V33, P63
  • [9] Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing
    Bangia, A
    Diebold, FX
    Kronimus, A
    Schagen, C
    Schuermann, T
    [J]. JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE, 2002, 26 (2-3) : 445 - 474
  • [10] Berger Helge., 1997, EUR J POLIT ECON, V13, P807
12345