The fractional accumulative time-delay GM (1, N) model and its application

Aiming at the problem of modeling small sample systems with time-delay cumulative effects, this paper introduces a time-delay coefficient control term and a fractional cumulative generation operator, and proposes a fractional cumulative time-delay GM (1, N) grey prediction model, using particle swarm optimization Algorithm to determine the model's optimal time-lag effect control coefficient and the optimal fractional cumulative generation order. Finally, combine the total economic output value and fixed asset investment of Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2011 to establish a forecast model, and compare the prediction results of the GM (1, 1)., GM(1,N) and time-delay GM(1,N) models shows that the fractional cumulative time-delay GM(1,N) model can better solve the small sample multivariate with cumulative time-delay characteristics system prediction problem.