Modelling the impacts of climate change on potential cultivation area and water deficit in five Mediterranean crops

Aim of study: To assess the impacts of climate change on local agriculture with a high resolution in a Mediterranean region with a diversity of climates. Area of study: Catalonia (NE Spain). Material and methods: Based on historical meteorological records and a regionalization of the RCP4.5 model created by the Catalan Meteorological Service, the Papadakis agro-climate classification was calculated for two climate scenarios. The changes in agro-climatic suitability and irrigation needs of five typical Mediterranean crops (alfalfa, almond, barley, olive and orange) were analysed. Main results: In the 2031-2050 climate scenario, over 15% of the study area will no longer be adequate for non-irrigated almond or olive, at locations in which they have been traditionally rainfed crops. If irrigation is provided, orange is likely to become agro-climatically suited for the entire Catalan coastline. Were the current crop distribution maintained, irrigation needs may increase on average 16% in the study area in the future scenario. Research highlights: High-resolution GIS data may be combined with Papadakis' classical method to compare different climate scenarios and detect risks and opportunities for local and regional agriculture.