Analysis of solid waste management scenarios using the WARM model: Case study

The production of municipal solid waste (MSW) is a critical global issue, due to the large amount of waste produced and the environmental impacts it can generate if they are managed improperly. The implementation of modern and efficient solutions, such as waste-to-energy technologies, are important for sustainable development, minimizing environmental impacts and producing renewable energy. MSW managers should use tools, such as scenario analysis, to assess management options more broadly and accurately. Thus, this study aims to analyze alternative scenarios using the Waste Reduction Model (WARM) to find the best solutions for sustainable management of MSW in the city of Xangri-l ' a (southern Brazil). One hundred and fourteenth (114) scenarios were evaluated that included recycling, landfill (no gas recovery and with flare gas recovery) and Waste-to-Energy (WTE) technologies (landfill with biogas recovery for energy, anaerobic digestion, and incineration). Then, after obtaining the outputs of different scenarios simulated in WARM model, the statistical methods (Principal Component Analysis, Hierarchical Clustering Analysis and Correlation Analysis) were used for data analysis. In addition, an easy-of-use regression model was calibrated to predict intermediate scenarios not covered in the Design of Experiment. The results of this work suggest that the priority, most sustainable, and low-cost strategy for the city of Xangri-l ' a is to encourage and promote initiatives to gradually increase recycling rates. Afterwards, the biogas collection from the landfill for energy generation presents itself as a viable alternative, mainly in a short period of time. Finally, as long-term solutions, anaerobic digestion and incineration techniques must be implemented, mainly through the establishment of inter-municipal waste management consortia.