Increasing prevalence, time trend and seasonality of gastroschisis in Sao Paulo state, Brazil, 2005-2016

To estimate the gastroschisis seasonality and trend of prevalence in recent years, stratified by maternal age and geographical clusters of Sao Paulo state, a population-based study was designed. We used data from the Live Births Information System (SINASC) in Sao Paulo state, Brazil, from 2005 to 2016. Trends of prevalence were evaluated for the specific subgroups using the Prais-Winsten regression model, and the Durbin-Watson test was used, to estimate the regression coefficient, the annual percent change (APC), and 95% confidence interval (CI). We observed 1576 cases of gastroschisis among 7,317,657 live births (LB), a prevalence of 2.154 (95% CI: 2.047-2.260) per 10,000 LB which included, 50.6% males, 67.4% Caucasians, 53.4% preterm births, and 80.9% caesarean births. The prevalence of gastroschisis significantly increased by 2.6% (95% CI: 0.0-5.2) per year, and this trend was higher in mothers aged 30-34 years (APC: 10.2, 95% CI: 1.4-19.4) than in mothers of other age groups. Between 2011 and 2016, we identified the existence of seasonality based on the date of conception in the middle months of the year (p = 0.002). This is the first and largest population-based study summarizing current epidemiology and identifying trend of prevalence of gastroschisis in Sao Paulo state.