Predictive factors for detecting colorectal carcinomas in surveillance colonoscopy after colorectal cancer surgery

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to identify the high-risk groups for metachronous colorectal carcinoma among patients who undergo colorectal cancer surgery. METHODS: Three hundred forty-one patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery who had undergone surveillance colonoscopy at least twice during a period of more than three years were analyzed. A metachronous colorectal carcinoma was defined as a new colorectal carcinoma detected by surveillance colonoscopy after surgery. RESULTS: Surveillance colonoscopy was performed 4.6 times per patient during an average of 6.2 years. Twenty-two metachronous colorectal carcinomas in 19 patients were detected, and 14 (64 percent) of 22 were detected within five years of surgery. The cumulative incidence of developing colorectal carcinomas during a five-year period was 5.3 percent. Seventeen (77 percent) of 22 carcinomas were 10 mm or less in size. Ten (71 percent) of the 14 carcinomas in early stages showed a flat appearance. Univariate analysis showed that extracolonic malignancy, coexistence of adenoma, and synchronous multiple colorectal carcinoma were significant predictive factors for detecting colorectal carcinomas in surveillance colonoscopy and that family history of colorectal carcinoma was a possible predictive factor. Multivariate analysis performed with Cox proportional hazards regression model showed that extracolonic malignancy and the coexistence of adenoma were significant predictive factors. CONCLUSION: We recommend that patients with the above predictive factors receive surveillance colonoscopy meticulously and regularly.