Japan's fertility transition: Empirical evidence from the bounds testing approach to cointegration

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in Japan over the 1950-2000 period. We use, for the first time in the fertility literature, the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Amongst our key results, we find that, in both the short-run and long-run, the use of contraceptives and abortion have significantly contributed to the fertility decline in Japan. We also find statistically significant evidence that increasing age at marriage in Japan and increasing education level of women have contributed negatively to the fertility transition. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.