Prognostic model to predict survival in patients with metastatic upper tract urothelial carcinoma treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy

Objectives: To create a novel prognostic model to predict survival in metastatic upper tract urothelial carcinoma patients treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy. Methods: After institutional review board approval, patients who had metastatic upper tract urothelial carcinoma and were treated with cisplatin based chemotherapy from 2000 to 2012 at Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Significantly predictive factors were identified by multivariate Cox regress analyses. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to estimate overall survival. Several prognostic models were validated by using our cohort, and Harrell's c-index was calculated to evaluate their predicting performances. Results: The present study consisted of 136 patients with a median age of 62 years and a median follow-up visit of 13.6 months. Multivariate analyses showed that renal function, performance status, liver metastasis and number of metastatic sites was independently related to survival. Based on these four variables, we constructed a prognostic model "renal function, performance status, liver metastasis, number of metastatic sites" with significantly different survival (P < 0.001). C-index results were renal function, performance status, liver metastasis, number of metastatic sites model 0.80 (0.69-0.90), Bajorin model 0.72 (0.61-0.83), Taguchi model 0.77 (0.67-0.87) and Tanaka model 0.78 (0.69-0.88). Our renal function, performance status, liver metastasis, number of metastatic sites prognostic model achieved the highest c-index in this study. Conclusions: Our renal function, performance status, liver metastasis, number of metastatic sites prognostic model could be useful for providing prognostic information on survival in patients with metastatic upper tract urothelial carcinoma.