Assessing flood risk in Baiyangdian Lake area in a changing climate using an integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling

被引:15
作者
Wang, Y. [1 ]
Zhang, X. [1 ,3 ]
Tang, Q. [1 ,2 ]
Mu, M. [1 ,2 ]
Zhang, C. [1 ]
Lv, A. [1 ,2 ]
Jia, S. [1 ]
机构
[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
[2] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
[3] China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
来源
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES | 2019年 / 64卷 / 16期
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
flood risk; climate change; extreme precipitation; anthropogenic factors; GPU-based hydrodynamic model; LAND-SURFACE; MULTIPLE-GCMS; WATER; SATELLITE; PRECIPITATION; OPTIMIZATION; SIMULATIONS; SENSITIVITY; PROJECTIONS; INUNDATION;
D O I
10.1080/02626667.2019.1657577
中图分类号
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
Flood-risk is affected by both climatic and anthropogenic factors. In this study, we assess changes in flood risk induced by a combination of climate change and flood prevention sets in the Baiyangdian (BYD) Lake area of China. Extreme storm events are analysed by the bias-corrected climate data from global climate models. A hydrological model is implemented and integrated with a hydrodynamic model to assess flood risk under three scenarios. The streamflow into the BYD was validated against historical flash-flood events. The results indicate that the changing climate increased extreme precipitation, upstream total inflow and the flood risk at the core region of Xiong'an New Area (XNA), the newly announced special economic zone in the BYD area. However, flood prevention measures can effectively mitigate the climatic effect. The research highlights the severe flash-flood risk at BYD and demonstrates the urgent need for a climate-resilient plan for XNA.
引用
收藏
页码:2006 / 2014
页数:9
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