Predictive Value of Computed Tomography Scans and Clinical Findings for the Need of Endoscopic Necrosectomy in Walled-off Necrosis From Pancreatitis

Objectives Choosing the best treatment option at the optimal point of time for patients with walled-off necrosis (WON) is crucial. We aimed to identify imaging parameters and clinical findings predicting the need of necrosectomy in patients with WON. Methods All patients with endoscopically diagnosed WON and pseudocyst were retrospectively identified. Post hoc analysis of pre-interventional contrast-enhanced computed tomography was performed for factors predicting the need of necrosectomy. Results Sixty-five patients were included in this study. Forty patients (61.5%) were diagnosed with pseudocyst and 25 patients (38.5%) with WON. Patients with WON mostly had acute pancreatitis with biliary cause compared with more chronic pancreatitis and toxic cause in pseudocyst group (P = 0.002 and P = 0.004, respectively). Logistic regression revealed diabetes as a risk factor for WON. Computed tomography scans revealed 4.62% (n = 3) patients as false positive and 24.6% (n = 16) as false negative findings for WON. Reduced perfusion and detection of solid findings were independent risk factors for WON. Conclusions Computed tomography scans are of low diagnostic yield when needed to predict treatment of patients with pancreatic cysts. Reduced pancreatic perfusion and solid findings seem to be a risk factor for WON, whereas patients with diabetes seem to be at higher risk of developing WON.