Bayesian inference for oil spill related Net Environmental Benefit Analysis

被引：16

作者：

Aps, R. ^{[1
]}

Herkuel, K. ^{[1
]}

Kotta, J. ^{[1
]}

Kotta, I. ^{[1
]}

Kopti, M. ^{[1
]}

Leiger, R. ^{[1
,2
]}

Mander, Ue.

Suursaar, Ue. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Tartu, Estonian Marine Inst, Tartu, Estonia

[2] Estonian Maritime Acad, Tallinn, Estonia

来源：

COASTAL PROCESSES | 2009年 / 126卷

关键词：

net environmental benefit analysis; Bayesian inference; oil spill response simulation; Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea); BALTIC SEA; FINLAND; GULF; CIRCULATION;

D O I：

10.2495/CP090211

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

This paper investigates the applicability of Bayesian inference to oil spill related situation assessment in order to facilitate the Net Environmental Benefit Analysis (NEBA) based decisions in evaluating the threat or probable overall environmental impact of the spill. Bayesian networks are believed to be useful in integrating the NEBA related information imported from 1) oil spill scene surveillance, 2) simulation results on an oil spill incident with human response, and 3) ecological sensitivity maps. This paper exemplifies the use of Bayesian Belief Networks in answering the questions: can the oil spill be combated at sea, and if it cannot then is the oil threatening a sensitive environment?

引用

页码：235 / +

页数：3

共 19 条

[1] Variability of the baroclinic Rossby radius in the Gulf of Finland [J].