Worldwide trend in human papillomavirus-attributable cancer incidence rates between 1990 and 2012 and Bayesian projection to 2030

BACKGROUND There is a paucity of global comparative trend analyses of all human papillomavirus (HPV)-attributable cancers. In addition, most analyses by international sources only describe past trends; few studies have projected the future trend of HPV-attributable cancers. METHODS Data were used from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5plus) database that contains annual incidence by cancer site, age, and sex, as well as corresponding populations. Age-standardized HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1990 through 2012. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates of each country up to 2030. RESULTS A significant but small decreasing trend worldwide in the HPV-attributable cancer incidence rate was observed with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of -0.3 (95% CI, -0.6 to -0.1). Notably, Uganda had a consistently increasing trend of HPV-attributable cancer incidence rate, with an AAPC of 1.7 (95% CI, 0.6-2.9). U-shaped trends were observed in some high-income countries because of a recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancers. Most countries experience a decreasing or stable trend in HPV-attributable cancers incidence rates between 1990 and 2030. However, Japan, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Italy, Costa Rica, and Uganda will have an increasing trend during the projection period. CONCLUSIONS Analyses revealed favorable downward trends in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in most of the included countries. However, the persistently increasing trend in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in Uganda and the recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer incidence rates in some high-income countries may present a new challenge for global HPV-attributable cancer prevention. LAY SUMMARY Analyses revealed favorable downward trends in human papillomavirus (HPV)-attributable cancer incidence rates in most of the included countries. However, the persistently increasing trend in HPV-attributable cancer incidence rates in Uganda and the recent increase in oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer incidence rates in some high-income countries may present a new challenge for global HPV-attributable cancer prevention.