Emissions - the 'business as usual' story is misleading

被引：671

作者：

Hausfather, Zeke ^{[1
]}

Peters, Glen P. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Breakthrough Inst, Climate & Energy, Oakland, CA 94612 USA

[2] CICERO Ctr Int Climate Res, Oslo, Norway

来源：

NATURE | 2020年 / 577卷 / 7792期

关键词：

Climate change; Climate sciences; Energy; Policy; Society; SCENARIOS;

D O I：

10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.

引用

页码：618 / 620

页数：3

共 20 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 2019, EMISSIONS GAP REPORT

[2] Transforming communication and knowledge production processes to address high-end climate change [J].

David Tabara, J. ;

St Clair, Asun Lera ;

Hermansen, Erlend A. T. .

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY, 2017, 70 :31-37

[3] Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks [J].

Friedlingstein, Pierre ;

Meinshausen, Malte ;

Arora, Vivek K. ;

Jones, Chris D. ;

Anav, Alessandro ;

Liddicoat, Spencer K. ;

Knutti, Reto .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2014, 27 (02) :511-526

[4] Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment [J].

Ho, Emily ;

Budescu, David V. ;

Bosetti, Valentina ;

van Vuuren, Detlef P. ;

Keller, Klaus .

CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2019, 155 (04) :545-561

[5]

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018, Global Warming of 1.5C, an IPCC Special Report onthe Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5C above Pre-Industrial Levelsand Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways

[6]

International Energy Agency (IEA), 2019, Africa energy outlook 2019 analysis

[7]

King D., 2018, Climate Change: A Risk Assessment

[8] Climate tipping points - too risky to bet against [J].

Lenton, Timothy M. ;

Rockstroem, Johan ;

Gaffney, Owen ;

Rahmstorf, Stefan ;

Richardson, Katherine ;

Steffen, Will ;

Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim .

NATURE, 2019, 575 (7784) :592-595

[9] Improving the way we think about projecting future energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide [J].

Morgan, M. Granger ;

Keith, David W. .

CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2008, 90 (03) :189-215

[10] The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment [J].

Moss, Richard H. ;

Edmonds, Jae A. ;

Hibbard, Kathy A. ;

Manning, Martin R. ;

Rose, Steven K. ;

van Vuuren, Detlef P. ;

Carter, Timothy R. ;

Emori, Seita ;

Kainuma, Mikiko ;

Kram, Tom ;

Meehl, Gerald A. ;

Mitchell, John F. B. ;

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa ;

Riahi, Keywan ;

Smith, Steven J. ;

Stouffer, Ronald J. ;

Thomson, Allison M. ;

Weyant, John P. ;

Wilbanks, Thomas J. .

NATURE, 2010, 463 (7282) :747-756

← 1 2 →