Estimating non-fatal road casualties in a large French county, using the capture-recapture method

被引:39
作者
Amoros, Emmanuelle [1 ]
Martin, Jean-Louis
Laumon, Bernard
机构
[1] INRETS, French Natl Inst Transport & Safety, Epidemiol Res & Surveillance Unit Transport Occup, UMRESTTE, F-69500 Bron, France
[2] Univ Lyon 1, UCBL, UMRESTTE, Epidemiol Res & Surveillance Unit Transport, F-69008 Lyon, France
[3] InVS, French Natl Inst, UMRESTTE, Epidemiol Res & Surveillance Unit Transport Occip, F-94410 St Maurice, France
关键词
capture-recapture; ascertainment rate; record-linkage; road trauma registry; injury severity; under-reporting;
D O I
10.1016/j.aap.2006.09.006
中图分类号
TB18 [人体工程学];
学科分类号
1201 ;
摘要
Introduction: Non-fatal road casualties are under-reported, with official figures coming from the police. In the French Rhone county, a road trauma registry constitutes a second source of reporting but its completeness needs to be assessed. We also wish to estimate an incidence rate of non-fatal road casualties that is corrected for under-count. Methods: Having two sources of reporting available, we can apply the capture-recapture method under certain conditions. To take into account different reporting probabilities among casualties, the capture-recapture analysis is stratified according to injury severity (New Injury Severity Score= NISS), road user type and human third party. To evaluate the sensitivity of the capture-recapture estimate on the number of matched casualties between the police file and the registry, three scenarios of record-linkage are considered. Results: For serious (NISS 9+) non-fatal road casualties, the police ascertainment rate is at most 57%, the registry ascertainment rate is at most 87%, and the aggregate ascertainment rate is at most 95%. The ascertainment-coffected incidence rate for serious (NISS 9+) non-fatal road casualties is at least 65 per 100,000. Conclusion: The degree of completeness of the registry for serious casualties is rather high, though not satisfactory. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:483 / 490
页数:8
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