Scoring systems of metabolic syndrome and prediction of cardiovascular events: A population based cohort study

Background and Aims Continuous scoring systems were developed versus traditional dichotomous approaches to define metabolic syndrome. The current study was carried out to evaluate the ability of scoring systems to predict fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events. Materials and Methods The data of 5147 individuals aged 18 years or more obtained from a population-based cohort study were analyzed. The occurrence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in the period of 7 years follow-up was considered as the associated outcome. Joint Interim Statement (JIS) definition, as a traditional definition of metabolic syndrome (MetS), and two versions of MetS scoring systems, based on standardized regression weights from structural equation modeling (SEM) and simple method for quantifying metabolic syndrome (siMS) were considered as potential predictors. Results The scoring systems, particularly, based on SEM, were observed to have a significant association with composite cardiovascular events (HR = 1.388 [95% CI = 1.153-1.670], p = .001 in men and HR = 1.307 [0.95% CI = 1.120-1.526] in women) in multiple Cox proportional hazard regression analyses, whereas the traditional definition of MetS did not show any significant association. While both two scoring systems showed acceptable predictive abilities for cardiovascular events in women (MetS score based on SEM: area of under curve [AUC] = 0.7438 [95% CI = 0.6195-0.7903] and siMS: AUC = 0.7207 [95% CI = 0.6676-0.7738]), the two systems were not acceptable for identifying risk in men. Conclusion Unlike the dichotomous definition of MetS, the scoring systems showed an independent association with cardiovascular events. Scoring systems, particularly those based on SEM, may be useful for the prediction of cardiovascular events in women.