Predominant Type of Dust Storms That Influences Air Quality Over Northern China and Future Projections

Dust storms (DSs) originating in East Asia impact ecosystems, climate, and public health in China. Although DS frequencies have declined since the 1950s, extreme DSs in spring 2021 had major effects on air quality over northern China. Based on daily DS records in spring during 1979-2021 and K-means clustering, we define two DS types (T1 and T2) in northern China, accounting for 18.7% and 81.3% of DSs, respectively. T1 DSs, originating mainly in the Gobi Desert, predominantly influence air quality in northern China, while T2 DSs mainly influence northwestern China near the Taklimakan Desert. T1 and T2 DSs are driven by major synoptic systems including the Mongolian cyclone and cold fronts, respectively. Based on predictions of the Climate Models Intercomparison Project Phase Six, we demonstrate that the spring DS frequency would decrease during 2020-2100 under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 585 scenario but would fluctuate with decadal variability under the SSP126 scenario. Our results indicate that spring DSs can be triggered by a range of mechanisms, with distinct impacts on air quality.