The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

被引：206

作者：

Pegion, Kathy ^{[1
]}

Kirtman, Ben P. ^{[2
]}

Becker, Emily ^{[2
]}

Collins, Dan C. ^{[3
]}

LaJoie, Emerson ^{[3
,4
]}

Burgman, Robert ^{[5
]}

Bell, Ray ^{[2
]}

DelSole, Timothy ^{[1
,6
]}

Min, Dughong ^{[2
]}

Zhu, Yuejian ^{[7
]}

Li, Wei ^{[8
]}

Sinsky, Eric ^{[8
]}

Guan, Hong ^{[9
]}

Gottschalck, Jon ^{[3
]}

Metzger, E. Joseph ^{[10
]}

Barton, Neil P. ^{[11
]}

Achuthavarier, Deepthi ^{[12
,13
]}

Marshak, Jelena ^{[12
]}

Koster, Randal D. ^{[12
]}

Lin, Hai ^{[14
]}

Gagnon, Normand ^{[15
]}

Bell, Michael ^{[16
]}

Tippett, Michael K. ^{[17
]}

Robertson, Andrew W. ^{[16
]}

Sun, Shan ^{[18
,19
]}

Benjamin, Stanley G. ^{[19
]}

Green, Benjamin W. ^{[18
,19
]}

Bleck, Rainer ^{[18
,19
]}

Kim, Hyemi ^{[20
]}

机构：

[1] George Mason Univ, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA

[2] Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 USA

[3] NOAA, NCEP, Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD USA

[4] Innovim Inc, College Pk, MD USA

[5] Florida Int Univ, Miami, FL 33199 USA

[6] Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA USA

[7] NOAA, NCEP, Environm Modeling Ctr, College Pk, MD USA

[8] NOAA, NCEP, Environm Modeling Ctr, IMSG, College Pk, MD USA

[9] NOAA, NCEP, Environm Modeling Ctr, SRG, College Pk, MD USA

[10] Naval Res Lab, Oceanog Div, Stennis Space Ctr, MS USA

[11] Naval Res Lab, Marine Meteorol Div, Monterey, CA USA

[12] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Greenbelt, MD USA

[13] Univ Space Res Assoc, Columbia, MD USA

[14] Environm & Climate Change Canada, Rech Previs Numer Atmospher, Dorval, PQ, Canada

[15] Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Meteorol Ctr, Dorval, PQ, Canada

[16] Columbia Univ, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, Palisades, NY USA

[17] Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA

[18] Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[19] NOAA OAR ESRL Global Syst Div, Boulder, CO USA

[20] SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA

来源：

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | 2019年 / 100卷 / 10期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; FORECAST SKILL; PRECIPITATION FORECASTS; WEATHER; PREDICTABILITY; TELECONNECTIONS; MULTIENSEMBLE; TEMPERATURE; TROPICS; SYSTEM;

D O I：

10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0270.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced 17 years of retrospective (re)forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The reforecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation 3 weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multimodel ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated, with skillful predictions of the MJO 4 weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones, which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters.

引用

页码：2043 / 2060

页数：18

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