Improving Surgical Triage in Spine Clinic: Predicting Likelihood of Surgery Using Machine Learning

BACKGROUND: Correctly triaging patients to a surgeon or a nonoperative provider is an important part of the referral process. Clinics typically triage new patients based on simple intake questions. This is time-consuming and does not incorporate objective data. Our goal was to use machine learning to more accurately screen surgical candidates seen in a spine clinic. METHODS: Using questionnaire data and magnetic resonance imaging reports, a set of artificial neural networks was trained to predict whether a patient would be recommended for spine surgery. Questionnaire responses included demographics, chief complaint, and pain characteristics. The primary end point was the surgeon's determination of whether a patient was an operative candidate. Model accuracy in predicting this end point was assessed using a separate subset of patients. RESULTS: The retrospective dataset included 1663 patients in cervical and lumbar cohorts. Questionnaire data were available for all participants, and magnetic resonance imaging reports were available for 242 patients. Within 6 months of initial evaluation, 717 (43.1%) patients were deemed surgical candidates by the surgeon. Our models predicted surgeons' recommendations with area under the curve scores of 0.686 for lumbar (positive predictive value 66%, negative predictive value 80%) and 0.821 for cervical (positive predictive value 83%, negative predictive value 85%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our models used patient data to accurately predict whether patients will receive a surgical recommendation. The high negative predictive value demonstrates that this approach can reduce the burden of nonsurgical patients in surgery clinic without losing many surgical candidates. This could reduce unnecessary visits for patients, increase the proportion of operative candidates seen by surgeons, and improve quality of patient care.