A Risk Model for Prediction of 1-Year Mortality in Patients Undergoing MitraClip Implantation

There is a lack of specific tools for risk stratification in patients who undergo MitraClip implantation. We aimed at combining preprocedural variables with prognostic impact into a specific risk model for the prediction of 1-year mortality in patients undergoing MitraClip implantation. A total of 311 consecutive patients who underwent MitraClip implantation were included. A lasso-penalized Cox-proportional hazard regression model was used to identify independent predictors of 1-year all-cause mortality. A nomogram (GRASP [Getting Reduction of mitrAl inSufficiency by Percutaneous clip implantation] nomogram) was obtained from the Cox model. Validation was performed using internal bootstrap resampling. Forty-two deaths occurred at 1-year follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of 1-year survival was 0.845 (95% confidence interval, 0.802 to 0.895). Four independent predictors of mortality (mean arterial blood pressure, hemoglobin natural log-transformed pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels, New York Heart Association class IV at presentation) Were identified. At internal bootstrap resampling validation, the GRASP nomogram had good discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78, Somers' D-xy statistic of 0.53) and calibration (le Cessie-van Houwelingen-Copas-Hosmer p value of 0.780). Conversely, the discriminative ability of the EuroSCORE II (the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II) and the STS-PROM (the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score) was fairly modest with area under the curve values of 0.61 and 0.55, respectively. A treatment-specific risk model in patients who undergo MitraClip implantation may be useful for the stratification of mortality at 1 year. Further studies are needed to provide external validation and support the generalizability of the GRASP nomogram. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.