Branching within branching: A model for host parasite co-evolution

We consider a discrete-time host parasite model for a population of cells which are colonized by proliferating parasites. The cell population grows like an ordinary Galton Watson process, but in reflection of real biological settings the multiplication mechanisms of cells and parasites are allowed to obey some dependence structure. More precisely, the number of offspring produced by a mother cell determines the reproduction law of a parasite living in this cell and also the way the parasite offspring is shared into the daughter cells. In this article, we provide a formal introduction of this branching-within-branching model and then focus on the property of parasite extinction. We establish equivalent conditions for almost sure extinction of parasites and find a strong relation of this event to the behavior of parasite multiplication along a randomly chosen cell line through the cell tree, which forms a branching process in random environment. We then focus on asymptotic results for relevant processes in the case when parasites survive. In particular, limit theorems for the processes of contaminated cells and of parasites are established by using martingale theory and the technique of size-biasing. The results for both processes are of Kesten-Stigum type by including equivalent integrability conditions for the martingale limits to be positive with positive probability. The case when these conditions fail is also studied. For the process of contaminated cells, we show that a proper Heyde-Seneta norming exists such that the limit is nondegenerate. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.