INTEGRATED SYSTEMS MODELLING OF THE WATER-AGRICULTURAL SECTOR IN ROSETTA, EGYPT: PLANNING FOR FUTURE WATER SHORTAGES

An integrated System Dynamics Model for the Rosetta region, Egypt, assessing local water balance, agricultural yield and revenue to 2050, is presented. Current water resource over-exploitation can be mitigated while still allowing for agricultural development. The utility of the system dynamics paradigm in modelling complex systems is highlighted, with the potential to extend the methodology to other case studies, because it does not advocate any specific policy/measure over any other, but rather models likely impacts of different "pathways" (i.e. policies that may be potentially implemented to the region). While most simulations hinted at continued over-exploitation, some suggest that improvements can be achieved by altering parameters (e.g. the percapita domestic water demand) and/or policies (e.g. the cropping regime). Different policies should be considered in parallel to introduce redundancy into the policy framework and to amplify positive results. The production of excess crop, so as to exploit international markets has been investigated as a working hypothesis, leading to further improvements in the water balance, yield and revenue. A model extension was built which suggested that improvements are possible, furthering local development. However, these improvements, which would probably manifest after years, have to be managed carefully, and would increase reliance on other countries.