Estimating the consequences of accidents: The case of automatic train protection in Britain

被引：11

作者：

Evans, AW

Verlander, NQ

机构：

[1] University of London, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, Gower Street

来源：

ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION | 1996年 / 28卷 / 02期

基金：

英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;

关键词：

railway accidents; accident frequency; fatality distributions; FN-curves;

D O I：

10.1016/0001-4575(95)00057-7

中图分类号：

TB18 [人体工程学];

学科分类号：

1201 ;

摘要：

This paper considers estimates of the number of fatalities per year on rail lines operated by British Railways that could be expected to be saved by the installation of automatic train protection, based on historical data. The authors' preferred estimate is 3.66 fatalities per year, with an estimated 95% confidence interval of 1.44-5.89. It is possible to find orthodox probability distributions that fit the distribution of numbers of fatalities well. FN-graphs are not a suitable means of fitting such distributions.

引用

页码：181 / 191

页数：11