Landscape ecological risk assessment of farming-pastoral ecotone in China based on terrain gradients

Farming-pastoral Ecotones in China (FPEC) is one of the most fragile ecological area in China. Landscape ecological risk assessment of FPEC based on terrain gradients has important strategic significance for ensuring national ecological security and the sustainable development of social economy. Based on the 30 x 30 m land use data and DEM data of FPEC in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, this paper constructs a landscape ecological risk assessment model, and uses the methods of spatial autocorrelation analysis and terrain distribution index to appraise the dynamic change law and influential factors of FPEC landscape ecological risk on various terrain gradients. The results showed that: (1) In recent 40 years, land use/land cover changes (LUCC) has significantly changed, and the farmland area has increased continuously, mainly transferred from grassland, forest and bare land, particularly the bare land converted into grassland in recent 10 years, which leads to substantial increase in grassland area. (2) The overall ecological risk of the study area showed an upward trend, and the area of highest risk regions has increased more than twice during the study period, mainly distributed in the regions of "interference of human activities in low terrain" and "change of natural high terrain environment," these regions showed a high spatial concentration. (3) Ecological risk along with terrain gradient distribution is mainly limited by climate and terrain factors, the interference of human activities and natural environment change are the main influential factors of ecological risk increase in low and high terrain, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to adapt to local conditions, and low terrain should rationally develop and utilize natural resources to reduce the interference of unreasonable production and human activities. In order to promote the sustainable and healthy development of FPEC, the policy of closing hillsides to facilitate afforestation should be adopted in the high terrain to reduce the impact of natural environment changes.