Mortality analysis in hip fracture patients: implications for design of future outcome trials

Introduction. Patients with hip fractures are usually frail and elderly with a 30-day mortality in excess of 10% in European series. Perioperative morbidity is often multifactorial in nature, and unimodal interventions will not necessarily decrease mortality. The purpose of this prospective study was to analyse causes of mortality, and thereby the potential and limitations to decrease mortality after hip fracture surgery. Methods. 300 consecutive, unselected hip fracture patients were treated in a multimodal rehabilitation programme with continuous perioperative epidural analgesia and anaesthesia, early surgery, standardized fluid and transfusion therapy, enforced oral nutrition and early mobilization and physiotherapy. All deaths within 30 days of surgery or during primary hospitalization were analysed and classified according to whether death was unavoidable, probably unavoidable, or potentially avoidable. Results. Thirty-day mortality was 13.3% (40 patients) and the total perioperative mortality was 15.6% (47 patients). Death was definitely unavoidable in 28%, probably unavoidable in 15%, and in theory potentially avoidable in 57%. In the patients where death was potentially avoidable, active care was curtailed in 16 of 27 (59%) patients. Conclusion. About a quarter of the total mortality in hip fracture patients is definitely unavoidable, and death is probably only avoidable in about half of the unselected patients. These results have important implications for the design of future outcome studies, which should focus on other relevant outcomes than mortality per se.