Resilience Analytics with Application to Power Grid of a Developing Region

被引:35
作者
Thorisson, Heimir [1 ]
Lambert, James H. [1 ]
Cardenas, John J. [2 ]
Linkov, Igor [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Virginia, Dept Syst & Informat Engn, 112 Olsson Hall,151 Engineers Way,POB 400736, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA
[2] US Agcy Int Dev, Washington, DC 20523 USA
[3] US Army, Corps Engineers, Engineer Res & Dev Ctr, Concord, MA USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Afghanistan; energy security; infrastructure systems; programmatic risk; risk and development; systems acquisition; systems engineering; MULTICRITERIA DECISION-ANALYSIS; MULTIPLE CRITERIA ANALYSIS; MANAGEMENT; RISK; SCENARIOS; DEFINITION; PRIORITIES; FRAMEWORKS; CLIMATE;
D O I
10.1111/risa.12711
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Infrastructure development of volatile regions is a significant investment by international government and nongovernment organizations, with attendant requirements for risk management. Global development banks may be tasked to manage these investments and provide a channel between donors and borrowers. Moreover, various stakeholders from the private sector, local and international agencies, and the military can be engaged in conception, planning, and implementation of constituent projects. Emergent and future conditions of military conflict, politics, economics, technology, environment, behaviors, institutions, and society that stress infrastructure development are prevalent, and funding mechanisms are vulnerable to fraud, waste, and abuse. This article will apply resilience analytics with scenario-based preferences to identify the stressors that most influence a prioritization of initiatives in the electric power sector of Afghanistan. The resilience in this article is conceived in terms of the degree of disruption of priorities when stressors influence the preferences of stakeholders, and ultimately a prioritization of initiatives. The ancillary results include an understanding of which initiatives contribute most and least across strategic criteria and which criteria have the most impact for the analysis. The article concludes with recommendations for risk monitoring and risk management of the portfolio of stressors through the life cycle and horizon of grid capacity expansion.
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页码:1268 / 1286
页数:19
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