Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel

被引：46

作者：

Dovern, Jonas ^{[1
]}

Fritsche, Ulrich ^{[2
]}

Loungani, Prakash ^{[3
]}

Tamirisa, Natalia ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Heidelberg Univ, D-69115 Heidelberg, Germany

[2] Univ Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

[3] Int Monetary Fund, Res Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA

[4] Int Monetary Fund, Washington, DC 20431 USA

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 2015年 / 31卷 / 01期

关键词：

Rational inattention; Aggregation bias; Growth forecasts; Information rigidity; Forecast behavior; DISAGREEMENT; EFFICIENCY;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.06.002

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We study forecasts of real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual-level forecasts are updated quite frequently, a behavior which is more in line "noisy" information models (Woodford, 2002; Sims, 2003) than with the assumptions of the sticky information model (Mankiw & Reis, 2002). While there are cross-country variations in information rigidity, there are no systematic differences between advanced and emerging economies. (c) 2014 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：144 / 154

页数：11

共 28 条

[21] Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence [J].