Theoretical development of stochastic delay analysis and forecast method

Schedule delay analysis and claim management for construction projects have received much attention recently due to an increasing number of construction disputes. Most of the available delay analysis methods employ a deterministic approach that uses deterministic activity duration in as-planned schedules for schedule comparison. However, the duration of construction projects is naturally uncertain. Based on a mathematical-model delay analysis method, this study proposes an innovative approach, the Stochastic Delay Analysis and Forecast method (the SDAF method), which combines probabilistic activity duration and systematic delay analysis procedures to predict the contribution of a single activity's delay and its probability to cause overall project delay. This paper proposes a methodology and examines its results by means of a simulated case. Although this study has simplified practical problems, preliminary study results are valuable and form a basis for further research. Namely, these study results provide not only a stochastic delay analysis and forecast method but also a fundamental basis for developing advanced schedule delay analysis methodology to help in solving complicated schedule delay problems in construction projects.