Maize yield under a changing climate: The hidden role of vapor pressure deficit

Temperatures over the next century are expected to rise to levels detrimental to crop growth and yield. As the atmosphere warms without additional water vapor input, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increases as well. Increased temperatures and accompanied elevated VPD levels can both lead to negative impacts on crop yield. The independent importance of VPD, however, is often neglected or conflated with that from temperature due to a tight correlation between the two climate factors. We used a coupled process-based crop (MAIZSIM) and soil (2DSOIL) model to gain a mechanistic understanding of the independent roles temperature and VPD play in crop yield projections, as well as their interactions with rising CO2 levels and changing precipitation patterns. We found that by separating out the VPD effect from rising temperatures, VPD increases had a greater negative impact on yield (12.9 +/- 1.8%, increase in VPD associated with 2 degrees C warming) compared to that from warming (8.5 +/- 1.4%, the direct effect of 2 degrees C warming). The negative impact of these two factors varied with precipitation levels and influenced yield through separate mechanisms. Warmer temperatures caused yield loss mainly through shortening the growing season, while elevated VPD increased water loss and triggered several water stress responses such as reduced photosynthetic rates, lowered leaf area development, and shortened growing season length. Elevated CO2 concentrations partially alleviated yield loss under warming or increased VPD conditions through water savings, but the impact level varied with precipitation levels and was most pronounced under drier conditions. These results demonstrate the key role VPD plays in crop growth and yield, displaying a magnitude of impact comparative to temperature and CO2. A mechanistic understanding of the function of VPD and its relation with other climate factors and management practices is critical to improving crop yield projections under a changing climate.