Empirical analysis of rice and maize production under climate change in China

The past few decades of extreme drought and flooding caused by changing climate conditions have significantly affected agricultural production globally. This study focuses on two vital crops in China-maize and rice-and provides a comprehensive analysis of how these crops are affected by climate change-induced factors over the periods 1978Q1-2015Q4. Four key findings were obtained. First, using a nonparametric approach to estimate actual and observed trends of climatic variables, the results show a significant positive trend in average temperature from February to October. On the other hand, seasonal temperature increases during spring, summer, and autumn. Second, the results show no significant change in the monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall patterns when examined over the study period. Third, using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we find that while temperature and rainfall do not significantly support rice production in the long and short run, they play a substantial role in maize production in China. Finally, we find no significant difference in the results for rice when the quantile regression (QR) technique that controls for distributional asymmetry effects is employed. However, the impact of temperature on maize decreases at higher quantiles. Given the outcomes of our study, we argue that an advanced irrigation system is crucial and must be encouraged to minimize the effects of climate change on crop production.