Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model

被引：262
作者：
Choudhuri, Arnab Rai [1 ]
Chatterjee, Piyali
Jiang, Jie
机构：
[1] Indian Inst Sci, Dept Phys, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India
[2] Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Astron Observ, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China
来源：
PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS | 2007年 / 98卷 / 13期
关键词：
MAGNETIC-FIELD; SUNSPOT; CIRCULATION; REGIONS; CYCLES;
D O I：
10.1103/PhysRevLett.98.131103
中图分类号：
O4 [物理学];
学科分类号：
0702 ;
摘要：
Whether or not the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by "feeding" observational data of the Sun's polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 reasonably well and predict that cycle 24 will be about 35% weaker than cycle 23.
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页数：4
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