Predictive factors for successful ultrasound-guided percutaneous drainage in necrotizing pancreatitis

Percutaneous catheter drainage (PCD) is now regarded as an initial minimal access technique of step-up approach for necrotizing pancreatitis. Factors that led to surgical intervention after initial management with PCD have rarely been reported. This study was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of ultrasound-guided PCD in patients with necrotizing pancreatitis and identify a subgroup of patients where PCD alone would be effective. We performed a retrospective review of patients with necrotizing pancreatitis who underwent intervention in West China Hospital from January 1, 2009, to March 31, 2013. Patients who underwent initial PCD therapy had lower intra-abdominal bleeding rate (41/235 vs. 1/51, P = 0.002), lower enterocutaneous fistula rate (28/235 vs. 0/51, P = 0.004), and lower mortality rate (46/235 vs. 3/51, P = 0.001) when compared with the patients who underwent operative intervention. The successful PCD group had lower computed tomography (CT) mean density of necrotic fluid collection (18 HU vs. 25 HU, P = 0.01) and higher prevalence of walled-off necrosis (20/35 vs. 5/16, P = 0.04) when compared with failed PCD group. Multivariate analysis of the predictors of surgery showed that only CT mean density of necrotic fluid collection [odd ratio (OR) 1.63, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.04-2.94, P = 0.006] was identified as significant factor. CT mean density of necrotic fluid collection and the existence of acute necrotic collection could influence the success rate of PCD.