Ecological risk assessment of ecosystem services in the Taihu Lake Basin of China from 1985 to 2020

被引：146

作者：

Xu, Xibao ^{[1
,2
]}

Yang, Guishan ^{[1
]}

Tan, Yan ^{[3
]}

Zhuang, Qianlai ^{[2
]}

Li, Hengpeng ^{[1
]}

Wan, Rongrong ^{[1
]}

Su, Weizhong ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Jian ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing Inst Geog & Limnol, Key Lab Watershed Geog Sci, Nanjing 210008, Peoples R China

[2] Purdue Univ, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA

[3] Univ Adelaide, Discipline Geog Environm & Populat, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia

来源：

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT | 2016年 / 554卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Land-use change; Ecosystem services; Integrated degradation risk assessment; Assimilation models; YANGTZE-RIVER DELTA; BIOME-BGC MODEL; BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS; GRAIN PRODUCTION; CARBON BALANCE; HEALTH-RISK; WATER; MANAGEMENT; RESILIENCE; SIMULATION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.120

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

There are tremendous theoretical, methodological and policy challenges in evaluating the impact of land-use change on the degradation of ecosystemservices (ES) at the regional scale. This study addresses these challenges by developing an interdisciplinary methodology based on the Procedure for Ecological Tiered Assessment of Risk (PETAR). This novel methodology integrates ecological models with a land-use change model. This study quantifies the multi-dimensional degradation risks of ES in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) of China from 1985 to 2020. Four key ES related to water purification, water quantity adjustment, carbon sequestration and grain production are selected. The study employs models of Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC), Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP), Biome-BGC and Agro-ecological Zoning (AEZ) for assimilations. Land-use changes by 2020 were projected using a geographically weighted multinomial logit-cellular automata (GWML-CA) model. The results show that rapid land-use change has posed a great degradation risk of ES in the region in 1985-2020. Slightly less than two-thirds of the basin experienced degradation of ES over the 1985-2010 period, and about 12% of the basin will continue to experience degradation until 2020. Hot spots with severe deterioration in 2010-2020 are projected to be centered around some small and less developed cities in the region. Regulating accelerated urban sprawl and population growth, reinforcing current environmental programs, and establishing monitoring systems for observing dynamics of regional ES are suggested as practical counter-measures. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：7 / 16

页数：10

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