Using Weather, Lunar Cycles, and Time of Year to Predict Trauma Incidents in an Urban, Level I Pediatric Trauma Center

Background: Trauma patterns in adults are influenced by weather conditions, lunar phases, and time of year. The extent to which these factors contribute to pediatric trauma is unclear. Objective: The present study aimed to review patients from a single Level I pediatric trauma center to determine the influence of weather, the lunar cycle, and time of year on trauma activity. Methods: A retrospective review of trauma activations (n = 1,932) was conducted from 2015 to 2017. Injury type and general demographics were collected. Weather data and lunar cycles were derived from historical databases. Results: Days with no precipitation increased the total number of injuries of all types compared with those with precipitation (p < .001). Blunt and penetrating injuries were more likely to occur during full moons, whereas burn injuries were significantly higher during new moons (p < .001). Blunt trauma was significantly higher in September than all other months, F(11, 1,921) = 4.25, p < .001, whereas January had a significantly higher number of burns than all other months (p < .001). Conclusions: Pediatric trauma trends associated with external factors such as weather, lunar cycles, and time of year can inform hospital staffing decisions in anticipation of likely injuries and help direct injury prevention efforts.