On Computational Costs for Monte Carlo Regional-Scale Simulation for Reliable Estimate of City and Urban Area Earthquake Disaster

被引：4

作者：

Iryo, Takamasa ^{[1
]}

Iiyama, Kahori ^{[2
]}

Lalith, Maddegedara ^{[3
]}

Hori, Muneo ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Tohoku Univ, Grad Sch Informat Sci, 6-6-06,Aramaki Aza Aoba,Aoba ku, Sendai, Miyagi 9808579, Japan

[2] Kajima Corp, Tech Res Inst, 2-19-1,Chofu shi, Tokyo 1820036, Japan

[3] Univ Tokyo, Earthquake Res Inst, 1-1-1 Yayoi, Tokyo 1130032, Japan

[4] Japan Agcy Marineearth Sci & Technol, 3173-25,Showa machi,Kanazawa ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan

来源：

JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI | 2022年 / 16卷 / 03期

关键词：

Probabilistic analysis; regional-scale high-resolution simulations; computational cost;

D O I：

10.1142/S1793431122400036

中图分类号：

P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];

学科分类号：

0708 ; 070902 ;

摘要：

Regional-scale simulation in high spatial and temporal resolutions is being developed for a more reliable estimate of earthquake disasters in city and urban areas. Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for various uncertainties in analysis models. Since one regional-scale simulation needs a large amount of computation, it is important to estimate computational costs for the Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, we first clarify uncertainties involved in the simulation of ground motion, structural seismic response, traffic flow, and economic recoveries. We then evaluate computational costs that are required for the reliable estimate using Tokyo Metropolis Earthquake as an example. The reliability of the Monte Carlo regional-scale simulation is discussed, considering the future trends of digital information about city and urban areas and monetized computational cost as well as the uncertainty of an earthquake scenario which is input to the regional-scale earthquake simulation.

引用

页数：18

共 4 条

[1] A new urban earthquake disaster simulation method: City-scale nonlinear time-history analysis
Lu, Xinzheng
Tian, Yuan
Xu, Zhen
Xiong, Chen
CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN-CHINESE, 2020, 65 (11): : 1055 - 1062
[2] Non-permanent GPS data for regional-scale kinematics: reliable deformation rate before the 6 April, 2009, earthquake in the L'Aquila area
Pesci, Arianna
Teza, Giordano
Casula, Giuseppe
Cenni, Nicola
Loddo, Fabiana
ANNALS OF GEOPHYSICS, 2010, 53 (02) : 55 - 68
[3] Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of a regional-scale transport chemistry model constrained by measurements from the Atmospheric Pollution Over the Paris Area (ESQUIF) campaign
Beekmann, M
Derognat, C
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2003, 108 (D17)
[4] A Physics-Based Simulation Approach for Urban-Scale Earthquake Disaster From Fault to City: Theory, Verification, and Application
Fu, Jisai
Ba, Zhenning
Liang, Jianwen
Wang, Fangbo
EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING & STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS, 2025, 54 (02): : 685 - 705

← 1 →