The impact of negative campaigning: Evidence from the 1998 senatorial primaries

We investigate the amount of negative campaigning in the 1998 senatorial primaries and the ramifications of negative campaigning on primary turnout and general election outcomes. A large literature has developed to show whether primary divisiveness has significant consequences for electoral outcomes, though we do not have much knowledge about what primary divisiveness entails (Bernstein 1977: 540). We employ a holistic measure of campaign negativity measured by coding newspaper articles three months prior to the primary to uncover how much negativity exists in senatorial primaries, which campaigns turn negative, and the relationship between primary negativity and several campaign factors. We find that primary divisiveness is strongly related to campaign negativity, negativity boosts primary turnout, while divisiveness depletes a nominee's general election fortunes.