Modeling dynamics of fatal opioid overdose by state and across time

Opioid overdose fatalities include deaths from natural opioids (morphine and codeine), semi-synthetic opioids (oxycodone, hydrocodone), synthetic opioids (prescription and illicit fentanyl, tramadol), methadone, and heroin. From 1999 to 2017, there were 702,568 drug overdose deaths in the U.S., with 399,230 attributed to opioids. This study aimed to assess the dynamics of opioid related fatalities throughout the U.S. from 2006-2016. This study is a secondary analysis of data obtained through the Kaiser Family Foundation's analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, 1999-2016. The data obtained were from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. A total of 272,130 individuals were included in the analysis. This represents the number of opioid overdose deaths in the United States from 2006-2016. Descriptive analysis of overall rates was conducted and mapped for visualization. Novel predictive models of increase for each drug overdose category were developed and used to calculate rate changes. Finally, the elasticity of change in rate for each drug category was calculated annually for the past 11 years. The highest rate of opioid overdose-related death occurred in West Virginia (40.03 per 100,000). In our secondary analysis, we explored the change in the rate of opioid-related deaths from 2015 to 2016. The changing dynamics of fatal opioid overdose at the state level is critical to guiding policy makers in addressing this crisis. Rates of fatal opioid overdose vary across the states, but we identify some trends. Regional differences are identified in states with the highest overdose rates from all opioids combined.