Recent Changes of Pacific Decadal Variability Shaped by Greenhouse Forcing and Internal Variability

被引:9
|
作者
Sun, Weiyi [1 ]
Wang, Bin [2 ,3 ,4 ,5 ]
Liu, Jian [1 ,6 ,7 ]
Dai, Yifei [8 ,9 ]
机构
[1] Nanjing Normal Univ, Key Lab Virtual Geog Environm,Sch Geog Sci, Minist Educ,Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog I, State Key Lab Cultivat Base Geog Environm Evolut, Nanjing, Peoples R China
[2] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[3] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Atmosphere Ocean Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
[4] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ, Nanjing, Peoples R China
[5] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Earth Syst Modeling Ctr, Nanjing, Peoples R China
[6] Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Math Sci, Jiangsu Prov Key Lab Numer Simulat Large Scale Co, Nanjing, Peoples R China
[7] Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Open Studio Simulat Ocean Climate Isotope, Qingdao, Peoples R China
[8] CMA, Key Lab Transportat Meteorol, Nanjing, Peoples R China
[9] Nanjing Joint Inst Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Pacific decadal variability; greenhouse forcing; internal variability; land precipitation; CMIP6; CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; NORTH PACIFIC; EL-NINO; OSCILLATION; ENSO; OCEAN; MODULATION; MECHANISMS; PREDICTION;
D O I
10.1029/2021JD035812
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) has enormous influences on North American and Eurasian climate and Pacific ecosystems. Its change under anthropogenic warming is of prodigious societal concern and scientific dispute. We show evidence that the observed PDV has amplified in the northeast Pacific horseshoe-like region while weakened over the South Pacific and Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region since the beginning of the 21st century. Congruently, under the influence of PDV, precipitation anomalies have significantly amplified globally and reversed the sign over Africa and East Asia. Analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical simulations and future projections suggests that greenhouse forcing weakens the PDV in the South and northwestern Pacific and shortens its periodicity. However, the observed PDV's enhancement over the North Pacific eastern boundary is likely due to internal variability. Our findings on the PDV's response to anthropogenic forcing and internal variability shed light on the PDV's future change and decadal prediction.
引用
收藏
页数:13
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