Has familial aggregation in Alzheimer's disease been overestimated?

Studies of the familial aggregation of Alzheimer's disease have primarily used samples ascertained from tertiary care clinics which may not be representative of many AD patients, for example those residing at geriatric nursing homes. Survival analysis was used to investigate whether estimates of familial aggregation of AD based on a clinic-based AD proband (C-AD) sample (probands: N = 544; first degree relatives; N = 4267) differ from one ascertained at a nursing home (NH-AD; probands: N = 225; first degree relatives: N = 1772). The cumulative survival from AD was significantly worse in relatives of the C-AD probands and the overall relative risk (RR) of AD in this group was greater than twice that of relatives of the NH-AD probands. However, age at onset in C-AD probands was significantly earlier than in the NH-AD group and in both groups this factor was negatively associated with familial aggregation. When, for this reason, the proband samples were matched one-to-one by age at onset, dropping those probands with no match, the two curves were close to identical and the RR for the C-AD group of relatives was 1.0. The results suggest that estimates of familial risk of AD based on C-AD samples are not applicable and overestimate the extent of increased risk for relatives of more prevalent, later onset AD probands. However, the overestimate can be explained by the typically earlier age at onset in C-AD samples as opposed to a sampling bias related to the proband's family history status per se. The relationship between onset age and familial aggregation suggests that no single estimate of the age-dependent risk (survival curve) is uniformly appropriate for relatives of AD probands. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.