Breast cancer incidence, mortality and survival in the Umbria region of Italy (1978-1999)

Recent incidence, mortality and survival rates of female invasive breast cancer in the Umbria region were compared with data of 20 years ago and with data from other Italian Registries. Incidence data, derived from an ad hoc survey and from cancer registry records, were analysed for the periods 1978-1982 and 1994-1999; mortality trend rates were calculated based on data from official publications and the variation was assessed by joinpoint analysis. Fifteen-year survival rates, observed, relative and age-adjusted, were also calculated. Compared with the years 1978-1982, the age-adjusted incidence rates rose during 1994-1999, while age-adjusted mortality rates decreased in this latter period. Incidence and mortality rates specific for each age group showed a constant increase with age, in both periods of observation, especially among women from 50 to 75 years of age. The 5-year relative survival rates increased 17%, rising from 0.71 in 1978-1982 to 0.86 in 1994-1998; the survival improvement was evident among women aged 45-54, and 65-74. Age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates in Umbria were lower than in other Italian Registries and survival rates showed a better prognosis for breast cancers diagnosed in Umbria in the period 1994-1998. In conclusion, the 1994-1998 decline in breast cancer mortality and the survival improvement may in part reflect the effectiveness of earlier detection by mammography and the progress in treatments. Genetic and lifestyle factors along with the improvement in diagnosis, and in quality of data collection and classification could have determined the recorded increase in breast cancer incidence. (C) 2004 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.