Increase in crop losses to insect pests in a warming climate

被引：816

作者：

Deutsch, Curtis A. ^{[1
,2
]}

Tewksbury, Joshua J. ^{[3
,4
,5
]}

Tigchelaar, Michelle ^{[6
]}

Battisti, David S. ^{[6
]}

Merrill, Scott C. ^{[7
]}

Huey, Raymond B. ^{[2
]}

Naylor, Rosamond L. ^{[8
,9
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Washington, Sch Oceanog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[2] Univ Washington, Dept Biol, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[3] Univ Colorado, Future Earth, Boulder, CO 80303 USA

[4] Univ Colorado, Dept Environm Studies, Boulder, CO 80303 USA

[5] Colorado State Univ, Sch Global Environm Studies, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA

[6] Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[7] Univ Vermont, Dept Plant & Soil Sci, Burlington, VT 05405 USA

[8] Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[9] Stanford Univ, Ctr Food Secur & Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2018年 / 361卷 / 6405期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

TEMPERATURE; IMPACTS;

D O I：

10.1126/science.aat3466

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Insect pests substantially reduce yields of three staple grains-rice, maize, and wheat-but models assessing the agricultural impacts of global warming rarely consider crop losses to insects. We use established relationships between temperature and the population growth and metabolic rates of insects to estimate how and where climate warming will augment losses of rice, maize, and wheat to insects. Global yield losses of these grains are projected to increase by 10 to 25% per degree of global mean surface warming. Crop losses will be most acute in areas where warming increases both population growth and metabolic rates of insects. These conditions are centered primarily in temperate regions, where most grain is produced.

引用

页码：916 / 919

页数：4

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