Multimodel forecasting of non-renewable resources production

被引：2

作者：

Semenychev, V. K. ^{[1
]}

Kurkin, E. I. ^{[2
]}

Semenychev, E. V. ^{[3
]}

Danilova, A. A. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Samara State Univ Econ, 141 Sovetskoi Armii, Samara 443090, Russia

[2] Samara Natl Res Univ, 34 Moskovskoe Shosse, Samara 443086, Russia

[3] VI Vernadsky Crimean Fed Univ, 4 Vernadsky Ave, Simferopol 295033, Ukraine

来源：

ENERGY | 2017年 / 130卷

关键词：

Non-renewable resources; Modelling; Forecasting; Trend; Fluctuation component; Monitoring of model evolution; OIL PRODUCTION; HUBBERT; MODEL; CHINA;

D O I：

10.1016/j.energy.2017.04.098

中图分类号：

O414.1 [热力学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

The article addresses the complexities of modelling and forecasting of non-renewable resources production (oil, gas, coal, etc.), by means of combining five production trend models with "custom" asymmetry, as well as with six models of fluctuation components: harmonic, independent from the trend; harmonic, proportional to the trend; simultaneous presence of the first and second models of fluctuation components; harmonic with "weighted amplitude"; "frequency-weighted" harmonics. The purpose of this research is to increase the production forecasting accuracy, by considering the fluctuation components models and by monitoring the models' evolution and fluctuation. The offered methods provide a production forecasting accuracy increase for oil in the U.S. - by 3.2%, for coal in Germany - by 5%, and gas in the Volgograd region (Russia) - by 25%. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：448 / 460

页数：13

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