Predictive model of third molar eruption after second molar extraction

Introduction: Extraction of second permanent molars is an option for providing space in orthodontic treatment. Although many articles have described its impact on the outcome, there are few data on the prognosis of the eruption of the adjacent third molars. The aims of this investigation were to provide predictive models of eruption of third molars after second permanent molar extraction and to validate them. Methods: A total of 48 patients (ages, 11-23 years) who had 128 second permanent molars (54 maxillary, 74 mandibular) extracted during orthodontic treatment were followed until eruption of the third molars was complete. Results and Conclusions: A lineal regression model predicted the final angle of the third molars with the permanent first molar by using the variables of initial angle, jaw, and the developmental stage of the third molar. A logistic regression model predicted the probability of correct eruption by using the variables of initial angle, jaw, sex, age, and the developmental stage of the third molar. (Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop 2010; 137:346-53)