On Some Aspects of Food Security of Russia and Belarus

The article assesses the role of the grain product subcomplex of the agro-industrial complex of the Union State of Russia and Belarus in ensuring food security. The analysis of the dynamics of the yield of grain crops in the allied states was carried out, which led to the conclusion that the period of fluctuations of the cycle of change in the yield of grain crops in Russia is 9 years, and in Belarus - 26 years. The absolute value of the change in yields during this time in Russia is 5.0 t / ha, Belarus - 13.4 t / ha, which indicates a higher value for the amplitude of fluctuation of grain yield in the Republic of Belarus. The equations of the trend of grain yield, which take into account the natural-economic cycles, have higher values of the coefficient of accuracy of approximation (R2) than linear models, and, therefore, have a higher degree of compliance with the initial data. It was revealed that the rejection of the planning of economic dynamics as a linear, growing process and the consideration of natural and economic cycles in agricultural production allows us to increase the coordination of the activities of the allied states for the production of grain and optimize the structure of its production to ensure food security.